Malthusian +Addendum

I will probably delete this entry.

It really doesn’t belong in my Journal. But - I’m putting down in writing my thoughts. Hopefully I’m wrong.

The earthquake in Haiti happened just a little over 24 hours ago.

When the first news reports appeared Tuesday evening of the Haitian Earthquake, I thought back to my travels around the Caribbean.

Most people think of nice sandy beaches and luxury resorts when they think of the islands. The truth is, these small States are mostly very poor by Western and European standards.

Construction is typically concrete block with little reinforcement. Standards really don’t exist outside the tourist areas. Construction is done by local labor with minimal training or skills. Actual design, especially for structural integrity and safety, is practically non-existent.

Island governments are weak and the resulting public infrastructure (roads, power, drinking water, sewerage) is the bare minimum – and very fragile.

And these are the developed, stable island nations which are in a far better state of affairs than Haiti. By orders of magnitude.

The Dominican Republic, which shares the island with Haiti, is the economic success story of the region.

The DR government, with its shaky history, violence, authoritarian rule – has only been able to have a stable society for the past decade or two. It has poured a lot of resources into schools, medical care and infrastructure (although electricity is still not reliable 24-hours per day).

The main thing the DR government has done is to foster a wide open free market economy. That’s why it’s the economic success of the Caribbean. The per capita income of the DR is about $9,000 per year. This success means the average person lives on about $25 per day.

(9K per year is considered serious poverty in the US.)

In Haiti – you live on $3 - $4 per day.

Port-au-Prince is extremely crowded – below minimum concrete and block construction – even by Caribbean standards – tenuous public services (power, water, sewer) at best. It’s basically a huge slum of three million people.

Haiti is a small nation (nominally a nation) with a history of political and social violence.

Half the population is illiterate.

The Haitian government exists (existed?) just slightly above ‘in name only’.

Services such as drinking water, power, sewer – i.e. – the ‘must absolutely have’ basics were barely functional on a good day.

Security such as local and national police – minimal - and by any developed nation standards – unprofessional.

Serious Fire Protection and Health Care?

You gotta be kidding. . .

Until recently, gangs were effectively in control. Haiti was the Western Hemisphere’s watered down version of Somalia. Actually, more comparable to Zimbabwe - except with a former insane evil dictator instead of a current one.

However, things looked like they were getting better – but just barely beginning to do so. With a lot of help and luck – Haiti just might have been able to become a minimally functioning Caribbean Island State.

Yesterday, when the breaking news reports were that the earthquake was 7.0 magnitude; the epicenter was shallow and near the city; the duration of the shaking was rather lengthy – my immediate thought was – this is going to be really bad.

My instant reaction to the first reports that ‘hundreds’ could be killed / injured was – bullshit – more likely thousands.

The developed world is reacting as quickly as it can.

Here’s the sad truth.

The rescue teams and first plane loads of aid will make a news splash. But that’s all.

There’s no heavy equipment, personnel, skills and supporting infrastructure (fire, rescue, police) in Haiti. Resources that must be immediately available to rescue people just simply don’t exist.

The thousands who are trapped are going to die. Many of the gravely injured are going to die.

In the immediate 24 to 48 hours people are dazed and in shock. Then, thirst and hunger will kick in. Pretty soon, people will realize that widespread help and rescue isn’t happening. There will be frustration and fear.

Lack of communication and information will compound the problems. People won't know what's going on outside their small (destroyed) area / neighborhood. Rumours will run rampant. Anger and violence will follow.

Homes and shops (food and water) that were not destroyed will become immediate targets by people who will fight to take whatever they can to survive. The looting, already starting, will likely escalate.

Bodies are not getting buried. Bodies in the rubble aren’t going to be accessible to bury. Disease is going to be a huge problem.

The airport is going to become a target. Since that’s where aid is immediately available – it’s where ‘stuff’ will be. Homeless, starving, thirsty, angry people will want that ‘stuff’. If you’re starving or thirsting to death – and you don't know when, or even if, help is going to arrive - you really aren’t going to patiently wait.

Establishing security at the airport, and other outlying airports and staging areas will have to be the first priority. You can’t bring in aid if you’re going to get mobbed or attacked when you land. There’s likely to be some sad, and news wise, high profile incidents.

Look for people to begin streaming out of the Port-au-Prince area into the country side. Refugees will try to cross over into the Dominican Republic – which will reinforce its border to protect their country.

Refugee camps and aid centers will need to be established - most likely outside of the metropolitan areas.

I think the immediate short term (next few weeks) situation is going to be far worse than the descriptors such as tragedy or crisis currently being used. I think the next couple of weeks are going to be more like an apocalyptic horror story. We’re going to be far more aware in the US since it’ll be occurring right next door (and not in some far away place like Darfur, Somalia, Eritrea, etc.).

Longer term prospects for moving large amounts of aid may happen best through the far more stable and secure DR.

The potential for death from injury, disease and violence is really high. Beyond that, I’m also afraid that the potential for social collapse in Haiti is also very real.

I really hope I’m wrong.

Addendum - Friday 1/15 AM

Beware scams.

Scum slither out of the woodwork during events like this earthquake. Be wary of text / phone / email solicitations.

DONATE - but only donate to charities and organizations that you are sure of.

The Red Cross is the safest place to donate.

Be careful to check out other organizations unless they are already known to you.

Sunday Edit

Here is a good list of reliable charitable links -

http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2007/impact/

Weekend Update January 10, 2010

Nothing all that interesting going on around here.

It’s still unbearably cold like it is everywhere else. I’ve built a fire just about every evening and on the weekends. In fact, I have a nice one going right now as I post this entry.

Yesterday I got the car aligned. I was there when Crossroads Ford opened – first in and first out.

Then I went to the Farmer’s Market for seed and peanuts for the birds. The 5 pound seed feeder usually lasts about 3 weeks. The peanut feeder a couple of weeks. But with this extremely cold weather, the birds have been emptying both in one week.

The raccoons are feeling the cold stress too. They tend to not feed as much in the winter. But in this cold spell – they’ve been banging on the screen door every night. The mother raccoon comes by herself. The two (remaining) offspring are still travelling together and usually come by later.

After the Farmer’s Market I went to the RBC for brunch and the game. FYI – meals at the Arena Club aren’t really worth the high cost. They’re good – but not that good.

State blew a 10 point second half lead losing to Virginia. Our free throw shooting is abysmal. Virginia’s was incredible. Virginia went 19 of 20 at the free throw line including the last 17 in a row. Wow!

Chip joined me at the game and Erika was working at the RBC as well. Had a good time visiting with them even though we lost.

My oven is self-cleaning so I cranked it on last night while I watched TV. After it finished and unlocked – I opened the door to let the heat help warm the house. Which it did. Very nicely. Not the way to heat a house – but since the residual heat was there – why not use it?

When Jason isn’t here, he turns his heat pump off and closes the door to his upstairs room / space / apartment. I went up there just to see what the temperature was – 41 degrees!

He needs to open his flag curtains and let the morning sun help warm it up (it’s a big window). But I didn’t touch anything. For those who don't know Nuke – it’s best not to poke the tiger.

Today, I’m doing nothing. I picked up a couple of steaks on sale this week so I’ll have one of them later on.

Tomorrow I head to Greensboro for a construction meeting and final inspection. It’s a pretty large project so it’s going to be a long day.

Last week I started scheduling our work into February. I just looked at my work calendar and I’ve got us loaded up. Probably too much. I’ll have to see how it goes – but I’m pretty sure it’s too ambitious and will need adjusting.

Being single I don't mind a heavy workload and long hours. But the other guys have families - it's not fair to overload them.

Blog Feature Update

My nephew, The Tokyo Google Geek*, alerted me to a blog tweak. The Next Blog>> button at the top of the page used to take you to a random blog site. Which was pretty much worthless. Google has changed that. It now tries to take you to a blog similar to the one you're on. The results can be interesting.

*Hmm - possible nickname? T2G2? This has potential. LOL

Florida 62 – NC State 61 +Addendum

Sunday’s Florida at NCSU game was one of the best games I’ve seen in quite a while. Both teams played ferocious defense the entire time. Every shot and rebound was contested. Full court pressure and back court traps on every possession.

Both teams played the entire game like it was the last five minutes in an NCAA Tournament game.

In over time NC State went on a 5 – 0 run. But Florida kept sending NCSU to the foul line. The strategy worked. State went 6 of 11 free throws in the OT.

State has a 1 point lead and the ball. Florida fouls Farnold Degand with 2.6 seconds left. Farnold makes his first free throw to make it State 61 – Florida 59. The second free throw clanks off the rim and then . . . . .



Our team just doesn’t have the pure talent that other teams have. That’s why we’re picked to finish dead last in the ACC.

But nobody plays as hard as we do. I’ve seen that in every game I’ve been to so far. This team is a thrill and a pleasure to watch.

Watching these kids play their very best – I don’t care what the final score is. I’m happy.

Addendum

I can't get away from "the shot". Seems it's all over the place. I was channel surfing and paused on FOX - Bill O'Reilly. Even he showed the replay.

BTW - to know where my seats are and my view - in the video starting at 53 seconds - that camera is behind me up at the concourse level. I'm about halfway down in section 129.

A Quiet New Year's Weekend

It's a quiet New Year's weekend here.

Other than a trip to the grocery store and some time spent repairing a broken leg on the ottoman, I spent Friday watching Bowl Games. All of them were exciting except for Florida's total domination over Cincinnati.

Today it's really cold outside. Right now it's still below freezing. I've got a nice little fire going and I'm watching In Harm's Way before today's Bowl Games start. In Harm's Way is a vastly underrated movie. At it's time it wasn't well received.

In retrospect it was Patricia Neal's finest performance and possibly John Wayne's as well. Burgess Meredith also has a fine supporting role.

Also, I've got homemade chicken and rice soup in the crock pot made from leftover roast chicken (from Harris-Teeter). It smells great.

Tomorrow afternoon I'll head to the RBC Center to watch Florida play NC State. Should be a close game. It'll be on Fox Sports Net if you want to watch.

A nice relaxing 3-day weekend so far.

Fire Extinguishers

Everybody knows having fire extinguishers in the home is important. We all say we should have one. But how many of us actually do?

Over the Christmas Holidays a coworker had a kitchen fire.

Somehow a resin / plastic refrigerator magnet became attached to the bottom of a baking pan.

When they baked muffins, or corn fritters, I can’t remember which – the resin magnet caught fire.

Fortunately – they had a fire extinguisher in the kitchen.

Home saved. Nobody is homeless / living in a rental apartment. Keepsakes and photos are safe. Life not disrupted. No having to deal with insurance companies for 6 months.

And NOBODY DIED.

The next day I bought 2 fire extinguishers at Lowes Home Improvement.

The primary fire extinguisher is adjacent to the kitchen, garage and the stairs to the bonus room.

 

 

The second fire extinguisher is in the hallway laundry closet. Next to the bed rooms.

 

 

And as my coworker said to me – “That’s great you got fire extinguishers. I hope you never use them.”

Indeed.

Christmas 2009

Nuke's parents were out of town for Christmas so he came up to Sanford to go with me to NoVa to spend Christmas with the family.

We left around 1030 on Christmas Eve. Traffic wasn't too bad until we got near Fredricksburg. After that it was pretty heavy with some stop and go.

My nephews were in a Nativity thing at Vienna Presbyterian; so we drove directly there. Got there about a half hour before the start so we went across the street and got some Starbucks.

The service was pretty full. We sat in back so the families of the kids in the pageant could take the closer seats.

Plus, I didn't want anyone around me to get hurt when I got struck by lightening for being in church.

Afterwards we all went to a restaurant for dinner: Me, Nuke, brother-in-law, sister, niece and her hubby, and the 2 auxiliary nephews. Chinese Christmas Eve dinner should be a tradition. It was great.

Christmas morning ADD and RDD has everybody over for breakfast and to watch the kids tear into their loot.

None of my photos turned out all that great.

Afterwards Nuke and I went into Reston to see Sherlock Holmes. OK but not that great. Wait for Netflix - skip paying admission at the theater.

Christmas dinner was at ACH and GAH. As usual it was excellent and a lot of fun to have everybody together.

 

Drove back to NC on Saturday. I spent the evening watching Bowl games. The UNC - Pittsburgh game was about as close as you could get. Interesting note - NC State beat both UNC and Pittsburgh this season.