WRAL must have read my previous blog entry.
They agree with me in an article from today.
http://www.wralsportsfan.com/-final-four-weekend-likely-to-decide-acc-division-champs/17074615/
https://bill-1956.blogspot.com/2017/10/this-weekend-will-determine-who-plays.html
Tuesday, October 31, 2017
Monday, October 30, 2017
This Weekend Will Determine Who Plays In The ACC Championship Game - Probably
Two games Saturday will determine who plays in the ACC Championship Game - Probably
#5 Clemson (5 - 1) at #19 NC State (4 - 0) 3:30 ABC
#13 Virginia Tech (3 - 1) at #6 Miami (5 - 0) 8:00 ABC
Atlantic Division
If State wins - undefeated in the Atlantic and everybody else has two losses. Barring catastrophe, State wins out and plays in the ACC Championship Game.
If Clemson wins - both Clemson and State have one Atlantic Division loss - Clemson has the tiebreaker over State. Both win out and Clemson plays in the ACC Championship Game.
Clemson favored by 7.
Coastal Division
If Miami wins - undefeated in the Coastal and everybody else has two losses. Miami wins out and plays in the ACC Championship Game.
If Virginia Tech wins - both Miami and VT have one Coastal Division loss - VT has the tiebreaker over Miami. Everybody else has two losses. VT wins out and plays in the ACC Championship Game.
VT favored by 2 points.
Of course, every team will still have conference games left to play. And the ACC is seriously wacky this year - so anything can happen.
But on paper - this weekend should decide the ACC Championship Game teams.
On paper.
Bottom Line - ACC National Championship Playoff spots and Orange Bowl spots are all on the line this weekend.
So, For what it's worth - You can take all this analysis and Five dollars and get yourself a Starbucks coffee.
#5 Clemson (5 - 1) at #19 NC State (4 - 0) 3:30 ABC
#13 Virginia Tech (3 - 1) at #6 Miami (5 - 0) 8:00 ABC
Atlantic Division
If State wins - undefeated in the Atlantic and everybody else has two losses. Barring catastrophe, State wins out and plays in the ACC Championship Game.
If Clemson wins - both Clemson and State have one Atlantic Division loss - Clemson has the tiebreaker over State. Both win out and Clemson plays in the ACC Championship Game.
Clemson favored by 7.
Coastal Division
If Miami wins - undefeated in the Coastal and everybody else has two losses. Miami wins out and plays in the ACC Championship Game.
If Virginia Tech wins - both Miami and VT have one Coastal Division loss - VT has the tiebreaker over Miami. Everybody else has two losses. VT wins out and plays in the ACC Championship Game.
VT favored by 2 points.
Of course, every team will still have conference games left to play. And the ACC is seriously wacky this year - so anything can happen.
But on paper - this weekend should decide the ACC Championship Game teams.
On paper.
Bottom Line - ACC National Championship Playoff spots and Orange Bowl spots are all on the line this weekend.
So, For what it's worth - You can take all this analysis and Five dollars and get yourself a Starbucks coffee.
Sunday, October 29, 2017
We Could Really Screw Things Up +Addendum / Correction
Conventional wisdom has one of three ACC teams having a realistic opportunity to make the National Championship Playoffs - Clemson, Miami or Virginia Tech.
If Clemson wins out - including the ACC Championship game - they are pretty much a 1-loss shoo in.
Likewise, if VT wins out and the ACC Championship game - they are a 1-loss team in the National Championship Playoff.
If Miami beats VT and then wins the ACC Championship game - they are the undefeated shoo in.
All three would likely be the #4 seed playing Alabama.
NC State - if successful - can [bleep] it up for everybody.
Here's how -
We upset Clemson next Saturday (ABC 3:30 PM). We match up well with Clemson and it's very possible we could win. Odds are against it - but not overwhelming odds.
If that happens - and State wins out the regular season (not a given with Boston College and Wake Forest still to play) - NC State goes to the Orange Bowl. No matter what happens in the ACC Championship Game.
Clemson then has two losses - no invitation to the National Championship Playoffs.
Let's say we make it to the ACC Championship game. Winner automatically goes to the Orange Bowl - unless selected for the National Championship Playoff - in which case the runner up (loser) goes to the Orange Bowl.
If State wins the ACC Championship game - with 2 losses - would NOT be selected for the playoffs. We go to the Orange Bowl.
If State loses the ACC Championship - vs. VT or Miami - then VT / Miami goes to the National Championship playoffs as undefeated (Miami) or one loss (VT). State, again, goes to the Orange Bowl.
There is a possibility if State beats Miami in the ACC Championship game, Miami with only one loss might still get the #4 spot. But a loss that late in the season works against Miami with the Selection Committee.
On paper - Clemson should win out and play Miami / VT.
Of course, as a State fan - I want to win next weekend. I want to win the ACC Championship - but I'd be OK losing it - going to the Orange Bowl - and VT / Miami going to the National Championship.
We're not quite in the playoff league yet - as was shown in our loss to Notre Dame. But we're better than the ND score indicated. We're close - and hopefully - will keep getting better and closer each year.
NC State, Clemson, Virginia Tech and Miami all control their own destiny. Any loss and they can kiss the National Championship playoffs or Orange Bowl good bye.
Wow - it sure feels good to have State in that kind of situation. It's been a long, long time.
Correction
The first place ACC team goes to the Orange Bowl unless selected for the National Championship Playoffs. If selected then the next highest ranked team goes to the Orange Bowl. Not necessarily the ACC Championship Game loser.
I all likelihood - even if State wins out - Clemson, VT and Miami will still be ranked ahead of NC State.
So, if State goes to the ACC Championship game and wins - State goes to the Orange Bowl. And knocks all the other ACC teams out of the National Championship Playoffs. Except possibly Miami if only one loss (to State in the ACC Championship Game).
If State goes to the ACC Championship game and loses - the next highest ranked ACC team goes to the Orange Bowl. State goes to a lower bowl - probably the Sun Bowl. Yuck.
Again - each team - NC State, Clemson, Virginia Tech and Miami all control their own destiny. NC State can win it's way into the Orange. The rest can win their way to the National Championship Playoffs.
College football is way more fun than Pro football!
If Clemson wins out - including the ACC Championship game - they are pretty much a 1-loss shoo in.
Likewise, if VT wins out and the ACC Championship game - they are a 1-loss team in the National Championship Playoff.
If Miami beats VT and then wins the ACC Championship game - they are the undefeated shoo in.
All three would likely be the #4 seed playing Alabama.
NC State - if successful - can [bleep] it up for everybody.
Here's how -
We upset Clemson next Saturday (ABC 3:30 PM). We match up well with Clemson and it's very possible we could win. Odds are against it - but not overwhelming odds.
If that happens - and State wins out the regular season (not a given with Boston College and Wake Forest still to play) - NC State goes to the Orange Bowl. No matter what happens in the ACC Championship Game.
Clemson then has two losses - no invitation to the National Championship Playoffs.
Let's say we make it to the ACC Championship game. Winner automatically goes to the Orange Bowl - unless selected for the National Championship Playoff - in which case the runner up (loser) goes to the Orange Bowl.
If State wins the ACC Championship game - with 2 losses - would NOT be selected for the playoffs. We go to the Orange Bowl.
If State loses the ACC Championship - vs. VT or Miami - then VT / Miami goes to the National Championship playoffs as undefeated (Miami) or one loss (VT). State, again, goes to the Orange Bowl.
There is a possibility if State beats Miami in the ACC Championship game, Miami with only one loss might still get the #4 spot. But a loss that late in the season works against Miami with the Selection Committee.
On paper - Clemson should win out and play Miami / VT.
Of course, as a State fan - I want to win next weekend. I want to win the ACC Championship - but I'd be OK losing it - going to the Orange Bowl - and VT / Miami going to the National Championship.
We're not quite in the playoff league yet - as was shown in our loss to Notre Dame. But we're better than the ND score indicated. We're close - and hopefully - will keep getting better and closer each year.
NC State, Clemson, Virginia Tech and Miami all control their own destiny. Any loss and they can kiss the National Championship playoffs or Orange Bowl good bye.
Wow - it sure feels good to have State in that kind of situation. It's been a long, long time.
Correction
The first place ACC team goes to the Orange Bowl unless selected for the National Championship Playoffs. If selected then the next highest ranked team goes to the Orange Bowl. Not necessarily the ACC Championship Game loser.
I all likelihood - even if State wins out - Clemson, VT and Miami will still be ranked ahead of NC State.
So, if State goes to the ACC Championship game and wins - State goes to the Orange Bowl. And knocks all the other ACC teams out of the National Championship Playoffs. Except possibly Miami if only one loss (to State in the ACC Championship Game).
If State goes to the ACC Championship game and loses - the next highest ranked ACC team goes to the Orange Bowl. State goes to a lower bowl - probably the Sun Bowl. Yuck.
Again - each team - NC State, Clemson, Virginia Tech and Miami all control their own destiny. NC State can win it's way into the Orange. The rest can win their way to the National Championship Playoffs.
College football is way more fun than Pro football!
The Same, Only Better +HVAC Addendum
State and Notre Dame are amazingly alike.
Run first, pass second. Rely on defense. Smart quarterbacks. Essentially traditional style football teams.
Notre Dame is the better version.
Hines getting injured and out of the game was, as they say, a game changer. With that one key player missing, went from a run team to a passing team. Also, we lost two guys in the defensive line rotation - which was a big factor in Notre Dame being able to run so well as the game went on.
With all of that - we just couldn't get going in the second half.
I don't like excuses - but the ref's gave the interception and touchdown to ND. Everybody in the stadium and watching on TV saw the offsides, it wasn't even close. State had a free play and just tossed the ball out there to see if we could get some big yards - didn't expect the interception to matter since the play was coming back. And no flag.
Also, the fourth down try at the end zone was the correct call. Under the circumstances - I'd call that every time. We just didn't score. But, even if those two plays turned out the opposite - ND would still have won by a touchdown. Which is about what would should be expected.
Disappointing loss - but not a disappointing season. The program is progressing very nicely.
We'll be a solid underdog next week against Clemson. I hope we put up a better fight.
We'll see.
HVAC Addendum
Got home Friday and the Heat Pump was running - but no air blowing.
Hmmm - maybe a fan motor or switch?
Turns out - neither.
The contactor (on / off switch) on the heat pump fused shut (on). Very unusual. The compressor would run and run and run until the heat safety switch engaged (at around 300+ degrees) and would shut the compressor off. But - when it cooled enough - the contactor was fused 'on' and the compressor would turn on again. All day. When the repair guys took all the access panels off - you could see the heat waves radiating off the compressor.
I'm surprised it didn't fail. But - with a new contactor, cooled off compressor - it started running fine ($196).
I did get some good advice from the service guy.
My system is 18 years old - so I asked him his opinion about what to replace it with - assuming it would need replacement soon. Conventional wisdom is these things last 15 years typically - 20 tops.
First, he said my particular heat pump was one of the better models when it was installed. Very heavy duty.
Also - the SEER rating, which was at the very best available then - is only improved by new ones with DC pumps and DC motors. He said the actual compressor unit in my system was one of the better designs and as efficient as new ones.
Also - the controllers are all electro-mechanical. Which means they are heavy duty an easily replaced (like the contactor) vs. control 'boards'.
His recommendation - don't get a new system - just keep repairing this one.
He said the worst thing that will happen is the compressor will fail - a replacement will cost me about $1,500 to $2,000. Way less than a whole new HVAC 'system' at Ten grand or way more (depending on what all would be replaced).
He said all the components in my system were top quality when installed and could even possibly outlast me. LOL
Bottom line - just replace parts as they wear out.
I guess that will work for both the Heat Pump and me.
:-)
Sunday, October 22, 2017
Hard To Believe +Addendum
I can't believe what I'm going to say. In fact - it's probably better to say I can't believe NC State Football is in a position for me to say what I'm going to say.
We're overrated.
We're number 14 in the AP Poll that just came out.
I don't think we're the 14th best team in the country.
We're composed of 1, 2, 3 and a couple 4 star recruits.
We have one of the best (very possibly the best) coaching staffs in the country able to take these level recruits and develope them into a top competitive football team. We have about 5 or 6, possibly more, guys who will end up in the NFL. Those are the numbers you see from top echelon football schools. Normally, State would have 1 or maybe 2.
Why over-ranked?
Because those very same top echelon schools get the 3, 4 and 5 star recruits. If you're Ohio State, Alabama, Penn State, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Michigan, Florida State, Southern Cal, Texas and so on - recruits come to you. At schools like NC State - we have to go after the recruits.
So - these teams start with a natural advantage. Their kids are a step quicker, bigger, talented and just better to start with.
These are the teams that populate the top 15 spots year after year.
Sometimes these teams drop down a bit (Clemson, FSU, Nebraska). And schools playing at the top of their ability, like NC State, occupy some of those top 15 positions.
But - let's be real.
We play at Notre Dame next Saturday. Notre Dame is ranked right about where they should be - number 9. Yes - Notre Dame is a top 10 team.
We could win close, lose close or lose BIG. What won't happen is NC State winning in a blowout over Notre Dame.
As long as we play well - which we will - I don't care. I'm beyond happy with this team win or lose.
And looking down the road - next comes Clemson. And afterwards we have to play one of the best teams no one is talking about - Wake Forest. And Boston College is getting much better and could give us trouble.
A top 10 or 15 school would not be overly concerned with that schedule. Yes - a top 10 or 15 school had better not have a let down playing them - but winning should be pretty much a given.
Not with NC State. We can't let our guard down or overlook anybody left on the schedule. Including UNCheats. We have to bring our A game every Saturday.
And that - is why I believe we're now officially overrated.
I think we're legitimately one of the best 20 to 25 schools. Which, hopefully, we can build on - land more and more 3, 4 and 5 star recruits - and someday be a top 10 or 15 school.
We'll see what happens.
#14 NC State @ #9 Notre Dame. Saturday. 3:30 PM. NBC
Addendum
ESPN Football Power Index is a reliable, realistic team ranking:
http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings
Notre Dame ranked 5; NC State ranked 17. That's probably more like it.
We're overrated.
We're number 14 in the AP Poll that just came out.
I don't think we're the 14th best team in the country.
We're composed of 1, 2, 3 and a couple 4 star recruits.
We have one of the best (very possibly the best) coaching staffs in the country able to take these level recruits and develope them into a top competitive football team. We have about 5 or 6, possibly more, guys who will end up in the NFL. Those are the numbers you see from top echelon football schools. Normally, State would have 1 or maybe 2.
Why over-ranked?
Because those very same top echelon schools get the 3, 4 and 5 star recruits. If you're Ohio State, Alabama, Penn State, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Michigan, Florida State, Southern Cal, Texas and so on - recruits come to you. At schools like NC State - we have to go after the recruits.
So - these teams start with a natural advantage. Their kids are a step quicker, bigger, talented and just better to start with.
These are the teams that populate the top 15 spots year after year.
Sometimes these teams drop down a bit (Clemson, FSU, Nebraska). And schools playing at the top of their ability, like NC State, occupy some of those top 15 positions.
But - let's be real.
We play at Notre Dame next Saturday. Notre Dame is ranked right about where they should be - number 9. Yes - Notre Dame is a top 10 team.
We could win close, lose close or lose BIG. What won't happen is NC State winning in a blowout over Notre Dame.
As long as we play well - which we will - I don't care. I'm beyond happy with this team win or lose.
And looking down the road - next comes Clemson. And afterwards we have to play one of the best teams no one is talking about - Wake Forest. And Boston College is getting much better and could give us trouble.
A top 10 or 15 school would not be overly concerned with that schedule. Yes - a top 10 or 15 school had better not have a let down playing them - but winning should be pretty much a given.
Not with NC State. We can't let our guard down or overlook anybody left on the schedule. Including UNCheats. We have to bring our A game every Saturday.
And that - is why I believe we're now officially overrated.
I think we're legitimately one of the best 20 to 25 schools. Which, hopefully, we can build on - land more and more 3, 4 and 5 star recruits - and someday be a top 10 or 15 school.
We'll see what happens.
#14 NC State @ #9 Notre Dame. Saturday. 3:30 PM. NBC
Addendum
ESPN Football Power Index is a reliable, realistic team ranking:
http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings
Notre Dame ranked 5; NC State ranked 17. That's probably more like it.
Wednesday, October 18, 2017
Final Numbers
splint + x-ray + ibuprofen = $2,262.16
From my emergency room visit back in July, the final insurance payments and billings have all been processed.
Here's the final tally -
Emergency Room $1,893.16 - $1,127.76 (BC/BS Payment) = $765.40 (Bill's Payment)
Emergency Room Doctor $330.00 - $183.64 (BC/BS Payment) = $146.36 (Bill's Payment)
Emergency Room X-Ray $39.00 - $14.29 (BC/BS Payment) = $24.71 (Bill's Payment)
Total Charges = $2,262.16
Bill's Total Out of Pocket = $936.47
Plus there were the follow up visits with the Orthopaedic Doctor and my General Practitioner.
The NC State Health Plan does follow up calls (Health Smart) to monitor what's going on. And to give health / life coaching and such. In my case, the life coaching is lose weight and stop being a fat ass.
But, I digress.
The Health Smart people agreed with the Orthopaedic Doctor. Generally speaking, don't go to the emergency room unless it's a life threatening issue.
If it's during the day - call your doctor and go there. If after hours or weekends - Go to an After Hours Clinic (Doc-In-A-Box).
Per BC/BS Health Smart - going to a Clinic would have limited my out of pocket to $100.00 plus copays for the splint and x-ray and meds. Total would have been well under $150.
And the charges to BC/BS would likely have been around $300 - $400 for a typical DIAB visit.
Live and learn.
Football
I hope this year isn't just a one hit wonder - but the start of a solid, clean, winning program.
Coach Doeren, the program and the team feels right.
This week is a bye week. Then @Notre Dame and back home for Clemson. Win or lose, it's great expecting we'll be competitive with both teams.
Friday, October 06, 2017
#17 Louisville 25 @ #24 NC State 39
NOT an upset.
State sacked Lamar Jackson 4 times. Louisville sacked Ryan Finley ZERO times.
Thursday night ESPN games are fun. But kind of hard on old guys. Game ended near midnight. Got home and to bed around 1 AM.
Tuesday, October 03, 2017
Sunday, October 01, 2017
NC State 33 - Syracuse 25
Fun game.
Syracuse made a great come back in the second half to make the game a little to close for comfort.
NC State Athletics Director Dr. Debbie Yow wants Top 25 Programs.
As of today, NC State Football is ranked 24 in both AP and Coaches Polls.
Louisville Thursday night.
It will be pretty much just like playing Syracuse. Only much more difficult. Louisville's Lamar Jackson is the Heisman Trophy winner for a reason.
Lamar Can Throw!
Not much defense. Louisville has a better offensive line than Syracuse but, like Syracuse, no running game. Well, somewhat better running game.
IF we bring our "A" game . . .
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