2 Years After

I’m an engineer – not an accountant, bookkeeper, or social scientist.

But I can do math. And I can do some simple analysis.

This past week was the 2 year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina.

I’m not going to comment on the wisdom of building cities under sea level elevation. Nor am I going to comment on providing Federal subsidies for insurance in flood zones. Far be it from me to cast doubts on building multimillion dollar beach front homes and having the, certain to occur, insurance claim underwritten by MY (and YOUR) tax dollars.

But I did do a little simple math –

The 2000 census population of Louisiana was 4,468,976. The 2000 census population of Mississippi was 2,910,540.

The people hardest hit and most affected were in the coastal zone – with New Orleans the major urban area that took the brunt of the Hurricane. The greater New Orleans metro area population in 2005 was about 1.25 million.

So, just for the sake of some simple math – let’s say half of the people in the entire state of Mississippi were severely affected by the storm. That’s about 1.5 million people.

And, let’s say half the people in the entire state of Louisiana were severely affected. That’s about 2.25 million people. Which easily covers the greater New Orleans metro area.

1.25 million plus 2.25 million is 3.5 million people. Let’s add another half million people for the hell of it and round that number up to 4 million - just to make the math easy.

Now the reported numbers of people that lost homes or were completely displaced were far far far far lower – well under 1 million total. But let’s stick with the 4 million number right now for this simple little exercise.

Congress and the Federal Government has authorized / spent an estimated 114 Billion dollars on Katrina relief and rebuilding. Divide 114 billion by 4 million and you get $28,500 per person. Not per family, but per person. Let’s say a typical family is mom, dad and 2 kids – that’s around a nice cool $100,000 per family.

The reality is – the actual number of people truly seriously affected was well under 1 million people – but we’ll use that as a maximum. Further inland, yes, trees were downed but a tree limb damaging the roof is not the same as getting your house wiped out. So, using 1 million people is still a vast over estimate of the number of people most seriously affected by Katrina.

Since I used 4 million in the math – but an estimate of 1 million truly affected people is still an over estimate – than my little math exercise should actually multiply the amount of $ per family by 4.

That’s $400,000 per family.

We’re not even talking about losses covered by insurance. Just flat out Federal money allocated and spent (or in the process of spending) in direct appropriations.

Obviously my little exercise is an oversimplification – but I’m looking for ball park figures; orders of magnitude; a rough idea of how effectively the money's been spent. The truth of the matter is that the average $ spent per family is a lot more than $400,000. Way more.

If my house were severely damaged by a storm – and the Government said – “Here Bill, have $400,000 to fix your house and buy a new sofa and TV” – I’d be a pretty damn happy camper. Plus I’d still have my homeowner’s insurance policy to pay me as well.

First I’d fix my house and buy some furniture. Then I’d head down to Leith Automotive and look for that BMW I’ve always wanted. And I’d still have a pot load of money in the bank.

Having worked for State government and been directly involved with Hurricane Fran – I know that the money from the Federal Government flows to the State and Local Governments.

Outside of initial costs, such as the Army or National Guard – the LOCAL and STATE governments undertake clean up – infrastructure repairs and reconstruction – and, through LOCAL and STATE government social service agencies – administers grants and loans to individuals and families for relief.

The bills are sent to the Federal Government. The Feds write the checks. But it’s the LOCAL and STATE governments that decide how the money is spent and allocated.

So – where the hell has the $400,000 per family gone?

Who spent it?

The initial Katrina response by the Bush administration was negligent beyond belief. It was another reflection of the incompetent appointees by George W.

But after the initial fiasco – the money starts flowing through the Federal bureaucracy and recovery and relief accountability falls squarely on LOCAL and STATE government.

It’s no secret that New Orleans and Louisiana politics have traditionally been suspect. Now, more than ever, New Orleans and coastal Louisiana politics is a cesspool.

So with the past week’s reports and news articles about how New Orleans is still messed up – I draw this conclusion: If you throw money into the toilet and keep flushing – it’s no wonder you end up with the New Orleans situation.

It’s the average people that suffer of course, but then again, they elect the shysters (Ray Nagin) and crooks (William Jefferson) along with the rest of the local sleaze.

I dislike, correction, I despise the Bush Administration. Not for it's policies (which I have a lot of problems with) - but simply for it's sheer incompetence.

However, this lack of long term recovery is one case where you can’t blame it on Dub’ya.