Malthusian +Addendum

I will probably delete this entry.

It really doesn’t belong in my Journal. But - I’m putting down in writing my thoughts. Hopefully I’m wrong.

The earthquake in Haiti happened just a little over 24 hours ago.

When the first news reports appeared Tuesday evening of the Haitian Earthquake, I thought back to my travels around the Caribbean.

Most people think of nice sandy beaches and luxury resorts when they think of the islands. The truth is, these small States are mostly very poor by Western and European standards.

Construction is typically concrete block with little reinforcement. Standards really don’t exist outside the tourist areas. Construction is done by local labor with minimal training or skills. Actual design, especially for structural integrity and safety, is practically non-existent.

Island governments are weak and the resulting public infrastructure (roads, power, drinking water, sewerage) is the bare minimum – and very fragile.

And these are the developed, stable island nations which are in a far better state of affairs than Haiti. By orders of magnitude.

The Dominican Republic, which shares the island with Haiti, is the economic success story of the region.

The DR government, with its shaky history, violence, authoritarian rule – has only been able to have a stable society for the past decade or two. It has poured a lot of resources into schools, medical care and infrastructure (although electricity is still not reliable 24-hours per day).

The main thing the DR government has done is to foster a wide open free market economy. That’s why it’s the economic success of the Caribbean. The per capita income of the DR is about $9,000 per year. This success means the average person lives on about $25 per day.

(9K per year is considered serious poverty in the US.)

In Haiti – you live on $3 - $4 per day.

Port-au-Prince is extremely crowded – below minimum concrete and block construction – even by Caribbean standards – tenuous public services (power, water, sewer) at best. It’s basically a huge slum of three million people.

Haiti is a small nation (nominally a nation) with a history of political and social violence.

Half the population is illiterate.

The Haitian government exists (existed?) just slightly above ‘in name only’.

Services such as drinking water, power, sewer – i.e. – the ‘must absolutely have’ basics were barely functional on a good day.

Security such as local and national police – minimal - and by any developed nation standards – unprofessional.

Serious Fire Protection and Health Care?

You gotta be kidding. . .

Until recently, gangs were effectively in control. Haiti was the Western Hemisphere’s watered down version of Somalia. Actually, more comparable to Zimbabwe - except with a former insane evil dictator instead of a current one.

However, things looked like they were getting better – but just barely beginning to do so. With a lot of help and luck – Haiti just might have been able to become a minimally functioning Caribbean Island State.

Yesterday, when the breaking news reports were that the earthquake was 7.0 magnitude; the epicenter was shallow and near the city; the duration of the shaking was rather lengthy – my immediate thought was – this is going to be really bad.

My instant reaction to the first reports that ‘hundreds’ could be killed / injured was – bullshit – more likely thousands.

The developed world is reacting as quickly as it can.

Here’s the sad truth.

The rescue teams and first plane loads of aid will make a news splash. But that’s all.

There’s no heavy equipment, personnel, skills and supporting infrastructure (fire, rescue, police) in Haiti. Resources that must be immediately available to rescue people just simply don’t exist.

The thousands who are trapped are going to die. Many of the gravely injured are going to die.

In the immediate 24 to 48 hours people are dazed and in shock. Then, thirst and hunger will kick in. Pretty soon, people will realize that widespread help and rescue isn’t happening. There will be frustration and fear.

Lack of communication and information will compound the problems. People won't know what's going on outside their small (destroyed) area / neighborhood. Rumours will run rampant. Anger and violence will follow.

Homes and shops (food and water) that were not destroyed will become immediate targets by people who will fight to take whatever they can to survive. The looting, already starting, will likely escalate.

Bodies are not getting buried. Bodies in the rubble aren’t going to be accessible to bury. Disease is going to be a huge problem.

The airport is going to become a target. Since that’s where aid is immediately available – it’s where ‘stuff’ will be. Homeless, starving, thirsty, angry people will want that ‘stuff’. If you’re starving or thirsting to death – and you don't know when, or even if, help is going to arrive - you really aren’t going to patiently wait.

Establishing security at the airport, and other outlying airports and staging areas will have to be the first priority. You can’t bring in aid if you’re going to get mobbed or attacked when you land. There’s likely to be some sad, and news wise, high profile incidents.

Look for people to begin streaming out of the Port-au-Prince area into the country side. Refugees will try to cross over into the Dominican Republic – which will reinforce its border to protect their country.

Refugee camps and aid centers will need to be established - most likely outside of the metropolitan areas.

I think the immediate short term (next few weeks) situation is going to be far worse than the descriptors such as tragedy or crisis currently being used. I think the next couple of weeks are going to be more like an apocalyptic horror story. We’re going to be far more aware in the US since it’ll be occurring right next door (and not in some far away place like Darfur, Somalia, Eritrea, etc.).

Longer term prospects for moving large amounts of aid may happen best through the far more stable and secure DR.

The potential for death from injury, disease and violence is really high. Beyond that, I’m also afraid that the potential for social collapse in Haiti is also very real.

I really hope I’m wrong.

Addendum - Friday 1/15 AM

Beware scams.

Scum slither out of the woodwork during events like this earthquake. Be wary of text / phone / email solicitations.

DONATE - but only donate to charities and organizations that you are sure of.

The Red Cross is the safest place to donate.

Be careful to check out other organizations unless they are already known to you.

Sunday Edit

Here is a good list of reliable charitable links -

http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2007/impact/